|
There is a close match in numbers between the ACC claim data and the LTSA/police injury data until June 2000. There was a sharp divergence after June 2000 – the LTSA/Police data deviating firstly downwards, then upwards relative to the ACC claims. Hospitalisation claims are a very small (4%) fraction of total claims and injuries. Every ACC traffic injury claim type except hospitalisation increased since the year ended June 2000 and all the major ones had been previously declining.
Comparison of the ACC data with the police data shows that although there may have been a relatively small impact (around 10%) from police reporting changes after June 2000, the trend of NZ traffic injuries has clearly reversed from its former steady downward trend prior to that date. Your claim that the injury trends are realistically shown solely by the hospitalisation data is unsustainable. It is only a minor fraction of both ACC claims and expenditure on traffic injuries and did not anyway correlate with the injury trends over the six years of dual ACC/Police data we have prior to the introduction of the highway patrol.
Your seizing on a minor statistical event to justify your policies and ignoring the weight of counter evidence is sadly typical of NZ traffic police and LTSA culture. It is unacceptable – in fact, to use a current adjective, sick.
3. Is there any documentation of the implementation of the “drive to lift reporting rates” “around 2000”? If so, please supply this and all available information of how and when it was implemented in each police district. Please also supply any information on why the implementation impact may have been substantially different in Waikato and/or Southern police districts from the rest of New Zealand.
4. The police are indeed continually and seriously misleading the public. In addition to the analysis given above, I will quote you the following two recent disgraceful examples. There are many others, and many are fully detailed on our website.
Police Superintendent Steve Fitzgerald claimed recently on television that if the police had not instigated the highway patrol and rigid enforcement of speed limits from 2001, we would now have 600 deaths per year on our roads.
But in 2000 there were only 462 deaths, down from 740 in 1990 - a very steady reduction of around 4.6% per year over that decade. So by 2004 we could have had only 383 road deaths if the trend had continued unchanged. That is significantly fewer than the actual 435 we did have in 2004 and hugely less than the nonsensical 600 that Mr Fitzgerald grabbed out of thin air.
Deputy Commissioner Long told Denis Welch [Listener, March 5-11] that each kilometre [per hour] you reduce the mean speed saves 20-30 lives per year.
Again this is simply refuted by the facts. The three-fold increase in speeding tickets issued since the 2001 "speed kills" programme was introduced has reduced the average speeds significantly - on the open road from consistently in the range 102-103 km/h over the previous decade down to 98 km/h in 2003. There has been no reduction in fatalities. In fact, as shown above, fatalities trended higher while average speeds were reducing sharply. Moreover, in previous years, fatalities trended down while average speeds did not. The historic New Zealand data shows absolutely no correlation between average speed and fatalities.
When imported second-hand cars were permitted in the late 1980's and after the open road speed limit was raised to 100 km/h, road casualties began a long steady decline matching the improvements in vehicle and road qualities. This decline ended with the 2001 changes. Injuries have risen sharply as shown by both police crash statistics and ACC claim statistics. Fatalities have also deviated upwards rather than downwards.
The above statements made by two very senior police officers are just bare-faced lies.
5. Your claim that increases in population and vehicle fleets show your policy is working is equally and totally fallacious. The population and vehicle fleets were also increasing during the previous decade while the casualty trends were all downwards. There is no reason to believe there have been substantial permanent changes in the rate of increase of population or vehicle fleet after 2000. Neither is there any evidence that the three-fold increase in speeding tickets issued has had a beneficial effect. Instead the statistical evidence shows that the rigid enforcement policy has been detrimental to traffic safety.
6. There seems no useful purpose served by putting ourselves to the trouble and expense of meeting. I have no interest in police or LTSA opinions as the public and traffic safety policies would be better served by much less exposure to those opinions and much more exposure to accurate analysis of all the relevant facts. What you prefer to believe is quite irrelevant. What matters is what actually happens. The police must abandon their sick culture of deliberate, self-serving misrepresentation and take an objective, critical view of their own policies. When that happens, I would be happy to contribute.
7. However I do wish to obtain the documentation I requested on the development and implementation of traffic speed enforcement policy within the government and the police. It would be helpful if you could call me on ... at your convenience to discuss that matter.
Thank you for your assistance.
Yours sincerely
[FastAndSafe] |
