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Injury Trends - Charts

From the New Zealand Accident Compensation Commission website statistical data:

Section 8. Motor Vehicle Account

Number of Claims Paid from Entitlement Category for New Entitlement Claims

Number of Claims Paid from Medical Fees Category for New Entitlement Claims

 

Take a look at the growth in the actual number of traffic tickets issued by NZ Police each year:

(Source: NZ Police Annual Reports)

Speed camera and particularly Highway Patrol speeding tickets are showing an exponential rise since July 2000.

Now compare the crash statistics over the same period.  Deaths and Injuries have trended up and Average Speeds have reduced.

The evidence is spectacularly clear:  Hugely increased numbers of speeding tickets and reduced average speeds have had only an adverse effect on deaths and injuries in traffic accidents.  Government policies have been a catastrophic failure and motorists are paying the price in every way for bureaucratic incompetence. 

Note on the logarithmic scales used in the above graphs: 

The normal exponential growth equation is  y = eax where a is a constant, x is the time variable and y is the population measure.  (e is approx 2.718)  This equation applies in situations where the increase in population is proportional to the size of the population, for example where a population has a net increase of 2% per year.  (In that case a = 0.02 for x measured in years.)

The natural logarithm is defined to be:  ln(y) = ln(eax) = ax.   This means that if we plot ln(y) against x we get a straight line of slope = a.   This is the reason for using logarithmic scales in these charts.   On a normal flat scale we would be observing changes in curved lines - much harder to identify and measure.

We expect that the growth/decline of traffic casualties will be proportional to the total number of them - that indicates a steady trend and will be shown on a logarithmic plot as a straight line. 

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